The global forwarding market is expected to slow sharply to 2.5% this year. That number will concern some forwarders and energise others, because difficult markets don’t treat everyone equally. They expose the difference between businesses that are simply moving freight and those adding real value.

The time to act is now, before the market fully stalls. 

Competitors are pulling back. Market share is beginning to move. Forwarders that respond early, by deepening customer relationships, taking share from retreating competitors and positioning their genuine capabilities clearly will be the ones that thrive through the slow period and emerge strongest when conditions improve. 

Those that simply ‘battened down the hatches’ will find the ground has already shifted and they have been left behind.

Double Down on Retention First

Slow markets are when customers re-evaluate existing relationships. Protecting your client base is the highest-return commercial activity available right now.

Forwarders that proactively reach out with performance reviews, market updates and structured account conversations are significantly harder to replace than those that only respond to queries. The goal is to make switching feel unnecessary and risky before a competitor even gets in front of your customer.

Run proactive account audits – Conduct regular NPS surveys (google them, they’re simple) or make structured review calls to identify and resolve friction points before clients look elsewhere. Most dissatisfied customers leave without ever complaining.

Build multi-stakeholder relationships – Ensure your relationship spans multiple contacts within each account. Losing a primary contact should not mean losing the account.

Map cross-sell opportunities – Identify logical triggers for complementary services based on each client’s growth trajectory, seasonal patterns or sourcing changes, then pitch those proactively rather than waiting to be asked.

Consider multi-year arrangements – Modest rate stability or fixed pricing in exchange for longer-term commitments provides predictable revenue and raises the switching cost for the customer.

Take Share From Competitors Who Are Retreating

In a flat market, growth means winning a larger slice of existing demand. Many competitors will pull back on visibility, communication and commercial activity during this period. That is a direct opportunity.

As fiscally conservative competitors reduce their presence in digital channels, maintaining or modestly increasing your own visibility becomes disproportionately effective. Share of voice translates into share of mind and eventually share of market. Forwarders that continue publishing market insight, sector commentary and operational guidance position themselves as stable and credible at precisely the moment customers are most attentive.

Targeted approaches that work in this environment:

Monitor competitor vulnerabilities – Service disruptions, negative reviews and leadership changes at competitors all create windows. Having a clear message ready and the ability to move quickly, turns those windows into real opportunities.

Build a formal referral process – Existing clients talking to peers is the most efficient new business channel available. Incentivise introductions with service credits or meaningful recognition, and make it easy for clients to refer by giving them something specific to say about you.

Publish proof-of-ROI case studies – Technical case studies that demonstrate exactly how you reduced cost, improved delivery reliability or solved a compliance problem are far more persuasive than capability claims. Prospective customers in cautious buying mode want evidence, not promises.

Specialisation Wins More Than Scale

Despite tighter margins across forwarding, logistics acquisitions remain highly active, particularly in specialist capabilities such as customs brokerage, e-commerce fulfilment and project logistics. Investors continue placing money where differentiation and ROI are clearest.

As Mikael Olesen of Logisyn Advisors noted, customs capability is increasingly being acquired “not just for revenue, but as a differentiator”. The winners are increasingly those able to offer services customers cannot easily source elsewhere.

Most forwarders already have differentiated strengths. The question is whether customers can see them:

– Niche network coverage
– Sector-specific knowledge
– Customs capability
– Time-critical expertise
– Multimodal experience
– E-commerce infrastructure
– Sustainability solutions
– Compliance strength
– Specialist trade lane knowledge

Identify two or three that are genuinely strongest, then audit your website and marketing materials against a simple test: would a prospective customer understand those strengths within thirty seconds of landing on your homepage? If not, that is where to focus.

Shift From Freight to Supply Chain Conversations

When competition intensifies, many forwarders retreat into reactive sales activity and everything becomes rate-led. That accelerates commoditisation rather than solving it.

The most commercially effective forwarders make a different shift: from quoting freight to diagnosing supply chain problems. They ask customers about inventory pressures, compliance concerns and sourcing changes. They offer scenario planning. That advisory approach –  understanding the problem before proposing a solution – creates commercial stickiness that transactional pricing cannot replicate.

Customers rarely just want transport. They want supply chain resilience, compliance certainty, reduced risk and reliable delivery performance. Forwarders that frame themselves around those outcomes become harder to compare on rates alone.

Practical actions:

– Prepare three or four open questions for customer conversations that explore supply chain challenges rather than rates
– Train commercial teams to present solutions as outcomes, talking about replenishment speed, compliance confidence, cash flow improvement, and not just transport modes
– Co-develop content or webinars with complementary, non-competing businesses that share your target audience; this extends reach without significant cost and positions your business in a broader supply chain context rather than a narrow freight one

This Is Where Market Share Shifts

The forwarding market is not collapsing. It is becoming more selective, and selective markets create disproportionate opportunity for the prepared.

When overall growth slows, customers become more willing to reassess incumbent providers. The businesses that stay visible, deepen existing relationships, sharpen their specialist positioning and shift their commercial conversations toward genuine problem-solving gain ground that would be far harder to take in a buoyant market.

The forwarders most likely to grow through this period may not be the largest. They will be the ones customers understand best, trust most and find it hardest to leave.

The market is open. The question is who is ready to use it.